San Diego CA (32°54'11"N, 117°08'46"W)

A uniform distribution for the various saddle elevations yields a 43.1% probability of this lineage.

Woodson Mountain -> Volcan Mountain -> Cuyamaca Peak.

A uniform distribution for the various saddle elevations yields a 6.9% probability of this lineage.

Woodson Mountain -> Cuyapaipe Peak -> Cuyamaca Peak.

A uniform distribution for the various saddle elevations yields a 50% probability of this lineage.

Summing over these three outcomes, Volcan Mountain has a 50% probability of being in the true lineage;

and Cuyapaipe Peak has a 93.1% probability of being in the true lineage.
^{1} Since Palomar Mountain is farther than Cuyamaca Peak,
it is in the ladder only if its prominence exceeds that of Cuyamaca Peak.